Resumed from Thomas N. Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
Class time!
Memahami chart pattern simply realizing the basic idea of becoming the winner of stock trading ('how about you sickfish, are you a winner yet?' > unfortunately not yet :'(, thats how i wrote this blog > to push my self into the winning zone).
Stock trading winner does pick the stocks that went up and avoid the stocks that went down. Easy.
We keep the mindsets first: stocks, up, down, pattern...
Ada beberapa chart pattern dan likely rates-nya yang dapat menggambarkan apakah stocks sedang nanjak atau turun.
1) Broadening Wedges, Descending (20111210 09:32)
- Penampakan (geez, i couldn't find better term) : Pergerakan harga diikuti oleh '2 down sloping' trendline yang melebar di ujungnya.
- Reversal / consolidation : long term (lebih dari 6 bulan) bullish consolidation
- Failure rate : 37%
- average rise : 46%, biasanya 20%
- Volume : biasanya meningkat seiring dengan waktu
- Kemungkinan harga mencapai target : 81%
let's check chart on AMAG ....
- Sinyal indecision reversal pattern mulai terlihat pada tanggal 06/28/2011, saat menyentuh harga 240
- pay attention to volume (check up explanation guys), akan lebih confirm saat volume meningkat pada broadening wedges descending, sayangnya tidak kita lihat di chart AMAG. be careful kalau volume pada pattern ini turun > artinya kemungkinan saham terus nyungsep :)
- pattern ini biasanya muncul setelah uptrend. Price turun dalam bentuk broadening wedge (do you know the meaning of wedge? googling aja ya :P) selama beberapa bulan, kemudian return to their original position: up!
- failure akan terjadi jika harga gagal menembus 5% dari breakout direction. Jika berhasil, om Thomas bilang the gain is astonishing.
- Total gain yang bisa didapatkan dari AMAG setelah penampakan pattern ini 50-60%, owwww!! sayang i miss the opportunity ....
2) Broadening Wedges, Ascending (20111210 16:00)
If there's an 'up' there will be a down, there for broadening wedges has an ascending pattern as well
- Penampakan : Pergerakan harga diikuti oleh '2 up-sloping' trendline yang melebar di ujungnya.
- Reversal / consolidation : short term (up to 3 bulan) bearish reversal
- Failure rate : 24%
- average decline : 20%, biasanya 10%
- Volume : sedikit kecenderungan meningkat seiring dengan waktu
- Pullback : 21%
- Throwback : 7%
- Kemungkinan harga mencapai target : 81%
- On Aug 2, 2011, the broaden trendline broken start @340, high 380, closing 365 (7.35% > threshold 5%)
- Aug 4, 2011 price open 385, lower compare to previous day 395, TP should be carried in this day, and the price break trendline 340
jika kita tidak beruntung untuk keluar di 340, tapi saat trendline 280, terbentuk di 18 Des 2011, gain yang masih bisa didapatkan sebesar (280-240)/240 ~18%
maximum cuan is preferred, yes, but things some times, not working as the way we expected :)
happy learning, discussion welcome
